Building and Using Models

Last week we introduced the idea of data, data collection, stratification of data and then data analysis tools. This week we introduce the concept of building models with our data in an effort to predict some future outcome. I have attached a BBC documentary on the space shuttle challenger disaster to inject  the story of a struggle between engineers and their data with operators and administrators that are forced to make hard decisions in a world where there is more unknown than known. After watching this video review the attached Power Point presentation.

MATH 543 Case Study 1: Forecasting

Using the Northern College Health Services visit volume in Appendix 6-1 on page 113 of the textbook, for this assignment, you will be providing a forecast of the number of clinic visits for November 2008 using the average change, confidence interval, average percent change, moving averages, and exponential smoothing forecasting methods. Use the Internet or Strayer Library to research at least two (2) examples of the forecasting methods being used in health services organizations.

Write a two to three (2-3) page paper in which you: